Our model gives Naples a 53% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Alta.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Naples have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Alta have done so in 3 of their last 4.