Our model gives Napier City Rovers a 84% chance to win this one, against 9% for a draw and 6% for Petone.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 81% likelihood against 19% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Napier City Rovers have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Petone have done so in 1 of their last 2.