Our model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 37% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Guangxi Hengchen.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Nantong Zhiyun have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Guangxi Hengchen have done so in 2 of their last 4.