Our model gives Nanjing City a 46% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Jiangxi Dingnan United.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Nanjing City have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Jiangxi Dingnan United have done so in 3 of their last 3.