Our model gives Nanjing City a 27% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 44% for Guangxi Hengchen.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 43% likelihood against 57% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Nanjing City have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Guangxi Hengchen have done so in 2 of their last 4.