Our model gives Naftan a 22% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 53% for Minsk.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 47% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Naftan have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Minsk have done so in 2 of their last 3.