Our model gives Naft Maysan a 37% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Newroz SC.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 40% likelihood against 60% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Naft Maysan have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Newroz SC have done so in 1 of their last 1.