Our model gives Nacional a 31% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 42% for Famalicão.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 49% likelihood against 51% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Nacional have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Famalicão have done so in 0 of their last 1.