Our model gives Nacional a 52% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Defensor Sporting.

Both teams are projected to score in 42% of simulations, against 58% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 37% likelihood against 63% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Nacional have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Defensor Sporting have done so in 2 of their last 3.