Our model gives Nacional a 63% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Atlético Progreso.

Both teams are projected to score in 42% of simulations, against 58% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Nacional have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Atlético Progreso have done so in 1 of their last 2.