Our model gives Nacional Asunción a 36% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Olimpia.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Nacional Asunción have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Olimpia have done so in 0 of their last 1.