Our model gives Náutico a 47% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 23% for Athletic Club.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 45% likelihood against 55% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Náutico have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Athletic Club have done so in 0 of their last 2.