Our model gives Nürnberg a 42% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Dynamo Dresden.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Nürnberg have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Dynamo Dresden have done so in 1 of their last 1.