Our model gives Nõmme Kalju a 53% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Vaprus.

Both teams are projected to score in 64% of simulations, against 36% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 64% likelihood against 36% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Nõmme Kalju have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Vaprus have done so in 1 of their last 2.