Our model gives Muttenz a 26% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 51% for Muri-Gümligen.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Muttenz have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Muri-Gümligen have done so in 0 of their last 1.