Our model gives Mushuc Runa a 57% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Delfin.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 45% likelihood against 55% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Mushuc Runa have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Delfin have done so in 2 of their last 4.