Our model gives Murom a 41% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Metallurg Lipetsk.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Murom have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Metallurg Lipetsk have done so in 0 of their last 1.