Our model gives Mura a 22% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 54% for Celje.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 49% likelihood against 51% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Mura have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Celje have done so in 3 of their last 6.