Our model gives Municipal Puente Alto a 47% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Chimbarongo.

Both teams are projected to score in 64% of simulations, against 36% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 63% likelihood against 37% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Municipal Puente Alto have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Chimbarongo have done so in 1 of their last 4.