Our model gives Moyola Park a 83% chance to win this one, against 11% for a draw and 6% for Armagh City.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 72% likelihood against 28% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Moyola Park have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Armagh City have done so in 0 of their last 3.