Our model gives Moyola Park a 30% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 47% for Ards.

Both teams are projected to score in 63% of simulations, against 37% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 63% likelihood against 37% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Moyola Park have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Ards have done so in 3 of their last 3.