Our model gives Motor Lublin a 34% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 40% for Jagiellonia Białystok.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Motor Lublin have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Jagiellonia Białystok have done so in 0 of their last 1.