Our model gives Mosta a 8% chance to win this one, against 17% for a draw and 75% for Balzan.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Balzan have done so in 0 of their last 1.