Our model gives Mornar a 69% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 11% for Arsenal Tivat.

Both teams are projected to score in 40% of simulations, against 60% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Mornar have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Arsenal Tivat have done so in 0 of their last 2.