Our model gives Montrose a 46% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Queen of the South.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Montrose have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Queen of the South have done so in 2 of their last 3.