Our model gives Montpellier a 47% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Boulogne.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Montpellier have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Boulogne have done so in 0 of their last 2.