Our model gives Montevideo City Torque a 37% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Tigre.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 43% likelihood against 57% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Montevideo City Torque have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Tigre have done so in 2 of their last 6.