Our model gives Monterrey a 33% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 40% for Cruz Azul.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Monterrey have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Cruz Azul have done so in 1 of their last 1.