Our model gives Montedio Yamagata a 28% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 47% for Kataller Toyama.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Montedio Yamagata have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Kataller Toyama have done so in 1 of their last 2.