Our model gives Monopoli a 38% chance to win this one, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Catania.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Monopoli have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Catania have done so in 0 of their last 2.