Our model gives Moggill a 41% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 39% for Newmarket.

Both teams are projected to score in 72% of simulations, against 28% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 80% likelihood against 20% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Moggill have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Newmarket have done so in 4 of their last 4.