Our model gives Modena a 56% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Avellino.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Avellino have done so in 1 of their last 1.