Our model gives ML Vitebsk a 72% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 10% for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk.

Both teams are projected to score in 40% of simulations, against 60% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 49% likelihood against 51% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, ML Vitebsk have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Arsenal Dzerzhinsk have done so in 3 of their last 3.