Our model gives Mjällby a 30% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 47% for Salzburg.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Mjällby have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 6, and Salzburg have done so in 2 of their last 5.