Our model gives Mito Hollyhock a 23% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 49% for Machida Zelvia.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Mito Hollyhock have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Machida Zelvia have done so in 2 of their last 2.