Our model gives Mirassol a 45% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Botafogo.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 45% likelihood against 55% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Mirassol have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 6, and Botafogo have done so in 1 of their last 3.