Our model gives Mindil Aces a 53% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 27% for Darwin Olympic.

Both teams are projected to score in 64% of simulations, against 36% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 70% likelihood against 30% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Mindil Aces have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Darwin Olympic have done so in 3 of their last 4.