Our model gives Mindil Aces a 84% chance to win this one, against 9% for a draw and 8% for Casuarina.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 85% likelihood against 15% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Mindil Aces have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Casuarina have done so in 3 of their last 4.