Our model gives Millonarios a 78% chance to win this one, against 16% for a draw and 6% for Boyacá Chicó.

Both teams are projected to score in 36% of simulations, against 64% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Millonarios have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Boyacá Chicó have done so in 1 of their last 2.