Our model gives Midland a 52% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 18% for Deportivo Maipú.

Both teams are projected to score in 38% of simulations, against 62% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 32% likelihood against 68% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Midland have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 4, and Deportivo Maipú have done so in 1 of their last 3.