Our model gives Middlesbrough a 39% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Lincoln City.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 53% likelihood against 47% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Middlesbrough have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Lincoln City have done so in 2 of their last 2.