Our model gives Middlesbrough a 50% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Cardiff City.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Middlesbrough have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Cardiff City have done so in 1 of their last 1.