Our model gives Meyrin a 44% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 33% for Stade Payerne.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 64% likelihood against 36% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Meyrin have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Stade Payerne have done so in 1 of their last 1.