Our model gives Metz a 36% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 39% for Saint-Étienne.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Metz have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Saint-Étienne have done so in 2 of their last 2.