Our model gives Metropolitanos a 28% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 42% for Caracas.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Metropolitanos have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Caracas have done so in 4 of their last 4.