Our model gives Metalul Buzău a 44% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Chindia Târgovişte.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 49% likelihood against 51% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Metalul Buzău have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Chindia Târgovişte have done so in 3 of their last 4.