Our model gives Metallurg a 65% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Yaypan.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Metallurg have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Yaypan have done so in 2 of their last 5.