Our model gives Metallurg a 57% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Shurtan.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Metallurg have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Shurtan have done so in 2 of their last 4.