Our model gives Metallurg a 85% chance to win this one, against 10% for a draw and 5% for Pakhtakor II.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 74% likelihood against 26% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Metallurg have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Pakhtakor II have done so in 3 of their last 4.