Our model gives Metallurg a 76% chance to win this one, against 15% for a draw and 8% for Jayxun.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Metallurg have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Jayxun have done so in 4 of their last 5.